Frontrunners for Governor Hear Challengers’ Winged Chariots.
Democrat Dan Malloy and Republican Mike Fedele continue to close gaping gaps in the primary races for governor, according to the Quinnipiac Poll. Malloy is within the survey’s margin of error, trailing Ned Lamont 45%-42%. Republican Fedele has narrowed former Ambassador Tom Foley’s lead from 37 points to 8 points since last month. The lieutenant governor has cut Foley’s lead almost in half in the last week while taking a pounding from Foley on the airwaves and in campaign mailings that highlight Fedele’s ties to Governor M. Jodi Rell’s tax and spending policies. Foley leads Fedele 38%-30%.
The third candidate in the Republican race, Oz Griebel, trails with 17%. The number of undecided likely Republican voters is down to 14%, with 48% saying they could still change their mind, which seems high in a survey of more engaged likely primary voters.
GOTV calls will be burning up the phone lines. Pity the family with dutiful members of both parties in one household.
Republican Linda McMahon is not taking for granted her long lead over Rob Simmons and Peter Schiff. She’s ahead with 50%, followed by Simmons with 28% and Schiff at 15%. Only 7% remain undecided. McMahon’s campaign nevertheless released a combative statement in reaction to the latest poll:
“Peter Schiff has proven he is just another politician who will say anything to get elected, even if it means distorting Linda’s positions and lying to voters about where she stands on important issues. His twin goals of abolishing Social Security and Medicare are deeply troubling and his support for legalizing illicit drugs is frightening. As we’ve come to expect from Rob Simmons, he is once again attempting to misrepresent his 17-year liberal voting record as he reinvents himself in front of an election, but he cannot escape his big-government record in Washington where, like Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he fought for a national energy tax, card check, ACORN’s liberal agenda and more than a trillion dollar increase in the national debt.”
18 comments
This post is in moderation purgatory on an earlier of Kevin’s posts, but seems more appropriate here anyway…
Fuzzy’s predictions for tomorrow:
Foley: 50
Fedele: 38
Griebel: 12
>>> basically I think the party endorsement is going to play a bigger roll at the poll than the Schwartz is able to quantify. It also seems like there’s a lot more Republicans who are offended by Fedele’s Bibb ads than swayed by them. He’s reaching more Democrats that Republicans with those ads, plain and simple.
Malloy: 51
Lamont: 49
>>>> There’s going to be higher Democratic turnout than anticipated (note I said higher than anticipated, but still pretty darn low). Malloy has the benefit of the party endorsement, and also nearly every major newspaper in Connecticut. Lamont’s unfavorables are slightly worse, and I have a sneaking suspicion they are actually even higher than the Q-Poll shows… a lot of Democrats who supported Joe Lieberman despise Ned, particularly Jewish voters, and they come out to vote. Finally, Ned has earned whatever supporters he has already and is unlikely to win more converts (this is because most of his numbers are simply attributed to name recognition). Clearly, from what the Q-Poll shows and from what I’m hearing privately, undecided voters are breaking for Malloy. A lot of Democrats remain undecided until just before the election but then actually do take the time, however briefly, to educate themselves. Those Democrats will tend to favor Malloy, so I give him the election in a squeaker.
Also, Mary Glassman has seriously been pissing off a lot of longtime Democratic party members with her idiotic mailers attacking Nancy Wyman. Mike Jarjura attacking Kevin Lembo is one thing. But attacking Nancy, one of the most beloved women in the party? Super idea. Mary will have a lot to atone for if she loses, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Democrats with a Lamont/Wyman ticket on Wednesday morning.
The four >s in your post many have caused it be to be identified as spam. Spam is a persistent problem, so there has to be some kind of filter. Abusive language rears its head now and then, too, so I’ve added some safeguards against that.
I check the filter as time allows during the day. Increasing traffic to the site has been accompanied by more spam.
Thanks Kevin.
I’ll repeat my predictions here too:
Foley 48%
Fedele 38%
Griebel 14%
I think Garber will win the AG primary.
As far as the Democrats, I think Lamont will win by three points, Wyman and Merrill will win by a lot. I think the Comptroller’s race will be close. The Democrats will do the Republicans a favor if they give it to Lembo because he’s never run for anything before and I don’t care if he’s the Deputy Comptroller or the State’s Health Care Advocate, no one knows who he is. Jarjura is a very popular former State Rep. and present Mayor of Waterbury who was so popular there, he first won as a write-in candidate. All that being said, I think Lembo will win.
I’d like to see Lisa Wilson-Foley win the LG primary. Since the SEEC allowed Boughton to illegally team up with Fedele, Boughton won’t have any money to spend on his campaign because Foley will be the Republican nominee. Boughton is a participating candidate who already accepted his public dollars that wound up in Fedele’s pocket. Unlike Boughton at least Lisa Wilson-Foley has a campaign treasury at her disposal to campaign with.
I’m sure this is one reason the people who wrote the law 9-709(a), wrote it the way they did. Boughton signed his life away this year by playing the taxpayer financed campaign game and now he’s screwed the Republican party because if this joker wins the primary, he won’t have any money to campaign with.
I wonder if the SEEC thought this whole thing through before the allowed Fedele and Boughton to break the law? I’ll bet they didn’t and we won’t hear another word from these people about this for the rest of the year which is typical of them. They screw up then NEVER admit they were wrong.
I’m actually confused about that… does Boughton for Lieutenant Governor still exist as an entity, or is it completely subsumed into Fedele/Boughton?
Also, without judging the viability of her campaign, Lisa Wilson-Foley’s lawn signs are awful. Was that the smallest font that was available, or was she just trying to force you to walk directly up to the sign to see the name on it?
EdMfromBranford – Being endorsed at the convention doesn’t guarantee that you’ll be the nominee – look at what happened to the Democrats in 2006. They ended up with a mixed ticket coming out of their primary. So why would convention endorsement have any bearing on if you can team up as a ticket?
After tomorrow we’ll go from candidates campaigning for 4 slots separately to two party tickets for Governor/Lt. Governor. The Lt. Gov. candidates won’t be raising or spending money independently anymore, so I don’t see how Lisa Wilson-Foley’s primary campaign account factors into anything after tomorrow…
Malloy 52% Lamont 48%
Wyman 70% Glassman 30%
Merrill 60% Garcia-40%
Lembo- 52% Jurara(sp) 48%
Fuzzy, Boughton’s campaign committee for LG ceased to exist when he and Fedele combined as required by 9-709(b) which is why I posted what I did. He can’t raise any money and he doesn’t have any money if he wins the primary and Foley wins. He can’t pay his pro-rata share under Chapter 155 so even if Tom Foley wanted to include him in his paid advertising, he no longer can. Once you’ve applied for a grant under Chapter 157, received it and spent it (which Boughton did by giving it to Fedele) he cannot now opt out of the taxpayer financed program and be a non-participating candidate and start raising money again. I’m guessing the SEEC never thought about this when they let Boughton and Fedele combine illegally under 9-709(a). Like I said, I wonder what they’ll do now? Knowing them, they’ll issue another illegal “Advisory Opinion” and who knows what these people will dream up next:
agressive nutmeg, you’re clueless. My point has to do with the fact that Boughton teamed up with Fedele under Chapter 157. Foley is not a participating candidate so now what? Your simplistic answer clearly demonstrates you don’t grasp the issue at hand and I really don’t have the time or patience to try to explain it to you.
Ed (Bill)-
You are such a nitwit. Candidates for Governor and Lt. Gov. have 14 days after the primary to form a joint committee–read the statute instead of quoting it.
It does not matter whether you are in the program or not.
Lt. Gov’s cannot have their own committee after the primary so pro-rata share is not a problem.
So if Boughton wins on primary night and Fedele loses, Griebel and Boughton have 14 days to file a joint committee with the SEEC.
If Fedele loses on primary night, the current committee is closed down.
Same goes for Wilson-Foley. If she is victorious tomorrow night, she cannot have a separate committee.
It is scary how dopey you are. Please, leave the heavy lifting to Foley’s adult staff…
Oh and by the way, it would be a non-participating committee since Oz and Foley are not participating. Sheesh! Go Oz!
Sue – thank you for making the point.
Linda actually has a position on something?
What a novel concept for her.
Personally, I think that whoever gets the Republican nomination will more likely become cannon fodder for Blumenthal.
Lisa Wilson-Foley may surprise people.
Sue, you are the “nit wit” here. Your statement here is absolutely, 100% wrong. You said:
“Candidates for Governor and Lt. Gov. have 14 days after the primary to form a joint committee–read the statute instead of quoting it.”
That only applies to two participating candidates under Chapter 157. Tom Foley and Oz Griebel are not participating candidates you moron.
Here’s another absolutely wrong statement by you:
“Lt. Gov’s cannot have their own committee after the primary”
Really? Under Chapter 155 non-participating Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Governor candidates have to have their own committees, that law has not changed. Go look at 9-616 to and get back to us okay you nit-wit?
Here’s another wrong statement from you:
“So if Boughton wins on primary night and Fedele loses, Griebel and Boughton have 14 days to file a joint committee with the SEEC.”
A non-participating candidate cannot form a joint committee with a participating candidate. Even the SEEC agrees with this in their advisory opinion. So once again you nit-wit you are wrong.
This the reason I made the original statement I did, Boughton HAS NO COMMITTEE because the SEEC illegally allowed him to fold it into Fedele’s committee.
Another wrong statement from you is this one:
“Same goes for Wilson-Foley. If she is victorious tomorrow night, she cannot have a separate committee.”
Holy crap, it’s amazing how incredibly stupid you are!
Sue, I can’t quote you a Chapter 155 statute to prove you wrong because one does not exist. The burden is on you to quote the Chapter 155 statute where you claim I’m wrong. Please find us the statute that says:
“Candidates for Governor and Lt. Gov. have 14 days after the primary to form a joint committee.”
(I’ll give you a hint, you’re right if they’re both participating but are you right if one is participating and one isn’t?)
and
“Lt. Gov’s cannot have their own committee after the primary ”
(Hint, there’s no law that says that. True for participating candidates but you claim that non-participating LG candidates “cannot have their own committee after the primary” but does your statement also apply to non-participating candidates too?)
I know you can’t because they don’t exist. Your silence/refusal to provide this will prove you are wrong.
Unfortunately, your problem is you’re too arrogant and ignorant to realize that Chapter 157 does not apply to non-participating candidates.
Even if the non-participating candidate wanted to campaign for Boughton and attempt to make and expenditure under 9-616(a)(5), he can’t because Boughton no longer has a candidate committee to receive the expenditure.
The last line should read “receive the contribution” not “receive the expenditure.”
It really doesn’t matter. After the primay the run as a pair. Voters cast one vote for both. They either win or loose together. After the election is another matter…..just ask ANYONE who has been Lieutenant Governor.
Ken it does indeed matter from a campaign finance perspective. Sue’s wrong here and she got awfully silent all of a sudden ever since she made a complete ass out of herself.
The SEEC’s worst nightmare just came true, Foley won and so did Boughton. Foley can’t even campaign for Boughton because Boughton has no committee, THAT is the issue here. How the candidates appear on the ballot has nothing to do with the fact that Boughton cannot raise or spend any money on his campaign and Foley can’t make any contributions to Boughton’s campaign committee that doesn’t exist.
It actually was a brilliant move by the SEEC to screw the Republican party if you think about it. Since neither Fedele or Boughton could qualify for the public money on their own, the SEEC illegally allowed them to team up under 9-709(a) which specifically prohibits a party-endorsed LG from teaming up with a non-party endorsed Gubernatorial candidate.
I still say those who crafted this legislation did indeed think this through and their intent was to prohibit this exact situation that the SEEC completely ignored when they let Fedele and Boughton team up.