The Danger in Predicting Election Results.

The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne went out on a limb this morning and raised the prospect that the egregious (to me, not to Dionne) British Prime Minister Gordon Brown could lead the Labor Party to a fourth general election victory this spring.  Former Prime Minister Tony Blair brought home the 1997, 2001, and 2005 wins over the long-hopeless Tories.

Dionne suggests there are lessons in the Gordon Brown fightback for Barack Obama.  One is having guided a nation through a serious recession.  The problem, not mentioned by Dionne, is that Britain’s finances are a mess, and Brown oversaw them for 10 years as Chancellor of the Exchequer.  Britatin’s problems may grow worse, not better, as it confronts Brown’s legacy of growing deficits.

And then two national polls tonight go and spoil it all for Dionne and Brown by finding the Tories under David Cameron opening up a 9 to 11 point lead over Labor.