On the Verge of History. Hrezi Grows Closer to Threshold to Primary Larson.

Democrat Muad Hrezi will force U.S. Representative John Larson into a historic primary if his campaign submits 3833 verified signatures to election officials by June 7th. Hrezi tells Daily Ructions he is on course to hit the mark.

Larson, 73, seeking his 13th term, would be the first Democratic member of the House from Connecticut to be forced into a primary for renomination. Larson’s only competitive contest was the 1998 Democratic primary for the open Hartford area seat.

Connecticut’s political system is constructed by party insiders to protect themselves. Local party committees select delegates to nominating conventions. Those committees usually ask incumbents to name their local delegates. A challenger needs 15% of those convention delegates to win a spot on the primary ballot. A candidate may also qualify for a primary by collecting 2% of the registered party members in the district in which the candidate is seeking office.

Connecticut’s resistance to outsiders is starkly evident on the website of Secretary of the State Denise Merrill, the state’s chief elections office. The “Candidate Ballot Access” page provides no specifics on how to seek a party nomination. “How do I get on the ballot?” it asks. “Consult with local party officials to determine how to qualify for nomination by an established political party.” Hrezi learned that many local party officials are not willing to talk to a challenger. His requests to speak to local town committees were usually rebuffed.

Collecting signatures is always harder than it looks. It is expensive and time-consuming. It consumes the resources a candidate will need for the primary and it takes time away from campaigning. Hrezi says his campaign is collecting about 200 signatures a day. He has begun submitting petitions to local registrars of voters. The diffused nature of collecting signatures means there will be errors. Candidates need to collect more than the law requires to have a buffer against disqualified signatures.

Larson and Hrezi both live in East Hartford. Hrezi, 27, is making his first bid for public office. Larson was elected to the state senate 40 years ago, defeating incumbent Democrat Marcella Fahey in a primary. Larson was the party-endorsed candidate for governor 1994 and lost the primary to Bill Curry, making his first of three bids for governor.

As of late April, Hrezi had raised just shy of $500,000, with $165,000 on hand. That is a significant haul for a Connecticut challenger. Larson has raised close to $1.2 million. He had $841,000 in cash on hand in April, according to his pre-convention report. Larson has raised a majority of his money from political action committees. Hrezi has raised more in individual contributions than Larson. That may be a warning sigh for Larson.

Hrezi is making his bid from the Larson’s left. Larson has seen this before. Two of his centrist colleagues, Joseph Crowley of New York and Michael Capuano of Massachusetts, were defeated in primaries by young challengers from the progressive aggrieved wing of the party.

Crowley was famously defeated in a low turnout 2018 spring primary by Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. Later that year, Ayanna Pressley, a member of Boston’s city council, defeated 11-term incumbent Capuano in a primary landslide.

If Hrezi qualifies for a primary, Larson’s biggest challenge may be convincing supporters they need to vote in the August 9th contest. There are no Democratic primaries for governor or U.S. Senate. Primary contests for secretary of the state and state treasurer appear to depend on challengers assessing their fundraising prospects. It could be a sleepy summer in Democratic politics.

Larson is familiar and well-liked. The organization that delivered a victory in a ferocious primary 24 years ago no longer exists. Easy re-elections have allowed his to forgo the tedious task of renewing his political operation. Larson is alert to the danger a low-turnout August primary against Hrezi poses to the incumbent winning two more years in Washington. If Hrezi submits enough signature for a primary, he will see that behind the genial Larson are establishment Democrats who have no interest in seeing him lose to an outsider.

Published May 23, 2022.