Only Good News for Lamont in WTNH Poll. Major Shift: Voters Approve of State’s Direction.

A new survey of likely voters by  WTNH / The Hill / Emerson College Polling finds Governor Ned Lamont leading Bob Stefanowski by 10 percentage points in their rematch of the 2018 election. Democrat Lamont, according to the poll, has the support of 48.5% of those surveyed, with Republican Stefanowski winning 38.4% of 1,000 likely voters.

The poll’s most challenging result for Stefanowski as the campaign enters its final seven weeks is Lamont’s favorability rating among respondents. In his fourth campaign statewide campaign, the Greenwich Democrat is viewed favorably by 55% of likely voters. Stefanowski trails by 10% in that metric as well.

Four years ago at this point in the campaign, a Sacred Heart poll found Lamont ahead of Stefanowski by 6%, 43%-37%. Lamont went on to defeat the Madison Republican 49%-46%, a margin of 44,000 votes. In 2018, Democrats enjoyed tailwinds created by the first two years of Republican Donald Trump’s candidacy. Polls have shown the advantage Republicans expected voter discontent to create a red wave for them. That appeared to dissipate over the summer. Since 2006, has often run distinctly contrary to national trends in statewide elections.

Today’s poll contains a finding that may mean Stefanowski faces an impossible task in his self-funded campaign. A majority of likely voters, 53%, believe Connecticut is headed in the right direction. That is a distinct shift from the eight years Dannel P. Malloy served as governor and the pre-pandemic years of Lamont’s administration. Satisfied voters do not often remove incumbents.

Published September 13, 2022.